World’s economic perspectives for 2010-2040

Map of developping countries, without least ad...
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The old economic order is shifting. As the global economy recovers some emerging markets are likely to grow faster than traditional economic powers. At the industry level, these shifts are even more apparent with accelerating capital flows, fundamental demographic changes, and the rise of state capitalism reshaping the world map for many sectors.

PwC’s Macro Consulting team has developed a tool to map future clusters across the world. As a result, they have highlighted the geographical locations that will host the largest clusters in five industries:

• Pharmaceuticals;
• Automobile assembly;
• Asset management;
• Filmed entertainment; and
• Tertiary education.

Key findings:

• The large increase in the share of world GDP represented by Asia over the next 30 years, helped by the expected rapid growth of economies such as China and India, should aid the development of dominant clusters in the region. This is likely to be especially apparent in industries that can benefit from large economies of scale. The top locations within Asia of some of these clusters have not yet come to light.

• In the pharmaceutical industry the cluster In Shanghai will grow to become one of the world’s most significant. However, the current leading clusters in New York and London to remain the largest. The increased affluence and aging populations in emerging markets will benefit centres such as Shanghai through boosting demand for healthcare.

• Growing automotive assembly clusters around Tianjin, Nanjing and Sao Paulo may rise to be amongst the world’s largest by 2040. The growth of the middle classes in China, India and South America will add hundreds of millions of potential car owners to the world market between now and 2040. This will require an enormous increase In production capacity in these regions.

• In asset management the existing large clusters in New York, London and Boston will be joined by Singapore, which May become the leading cluster in the Asian region. Tighter regulation and higher taxes are currently working against clusters in the United States and Europe but the key factor will be the increase in public and private capital available in Asia – which will fuel growth in asset management in the region.

• In the filmed entertainment sector Hollywood will retain its position up to 2040. However, it will face growing competition from rising film production clusters around Mumbai and Shanghai which are increasingly moving into mainstream productions.

• New York, London and Boston will remain the principal tertiary education clusters over the next 30 years due to the depth of quality universities they currently host, as well as offering environments in which these clusters can flourish. Many emerging and developing nations are investing heavily in tertiary education clusters, which are likely to improve significantly over the next 30 years. However, they will not surpass the existing top tertiary clusters in this timeframe.

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2 thoughts on “World’s economic perspectives for 2010-2040”

  1. China is also becoming a major consumer of goods. Chief among them in the next several years will be western medical devices.

    1. That may be a valid point of view. The effects of demographic shifts will be more complex. Aging populations in the developed world and increasingly China, South Korea and other emerging nations will increase overall demand for health related products and services considerably. The pharmaceutical majors are already increasing their access to emerging markets through direct investment or strategic alliances with, and acquisitions of, generic medicine producers based there.

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