McKinsey received responses from 1,677 executives, representing all regions, industries, company sizes, and functional specialties for their last Global Economic Conditions Survey, dated September 2009:
- Executives in China are no likelier than others to say that an upturn has already begun, but they are particularly hopeful about their own country’s prospects: 82% expect its GDP to increase in 2009, and 30% expect its GDP to regain pre-crisis levels in 2010.
- As has been true throughout the crisis, large public companies are much likelier to decrease the size of their workforce than small private ones – although these two kinds of companies don’t have different expectations for customer demand or profits.
- Fears that countries will restrict international trade seem to have receded in the past six months: 42% of respondents now expect it to rise in the long term, compared with just 16% half a year ago.
- Although just under half of all respondents expect tighter credit at the national level over the next five years, less than 10% expect sales to fall because consumers or businesses can’t get credit.
- Most companies are managing in a new normal, with an enlarged role for government and lower long-term growth expectations.
- Innovation is more important than ever; the companies that have the highest hopes for their own futures are likeliest to be focusing on it.
- January was the month when executives expressed the direst views about the economy. They now look forward to economic growth, but few expect a quick, full recovery.
- Executives indicate that the past year has slowed but not stopped globalization – and that skepticism about the value of free markets will continue as well.
For more details, you may find the full report at: